Before we get to the Week 7 picks, I would like to send out my condolences to anyone who had the 49ers on Thursday night and lost because of the declined safety.
An important lesson can be learned here, locking in on a game prior to the line moving can end up being the difference in a win, loss or push.
This game opened up with the 49ers at -6.5, it quickly moved to 7. On game day the line rocketed up to -9 and finally settled at -8 prior to kick-off.
San Francisco won 13-6 and depending on what line bettors had, the final play had huge implications. Lesson learned.
Lets dive into this weeks top picks using lines from Pro Line.
Home team in CAPS.
CAROLINA (+3.5) over Dallas
Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has had two weeks to work out what has gone wrong with his offence. Newton had career lows in completion percentage (41.4) and passing yards (141) in the loss to the Seahawks.
The Panthers have had a tough schedule of late. Their last three games (all losses) have been against Seattle, Atlanta and the New York Giants.
Dallas lost a heart-breaker to the Ravens last week, missing a last second field goal that would have given them the win.
Cowboys are banged up coming into this game, Dez Bryant is questionable and the team will likely be without starting running back DeMarco Murray.
Word out of Carolina is that Newton did some soul searching and is feeling rejuvenated. I expect this game to be decided on a late field goal. Carolina is 4-0 against the spread against teams with losing records.
Washington (+6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
This game smells like a classic New York Giants let-down game at home. The G-Men are coming off a very impressive thumping of the 49ers and now return to take on the upstart Redskins.
Washington won both meetings between these two teams last season. Electric rookie Robert Griffin III will be playing in his first divisional game, and it couldn’t be on a bigger stage.
Griffin threw for 182 yards and one touchdown and ran for 138 yards and two scores in last weeks win over the Vikings, including a jaw-dropping 76-yard touchdown run. He is also the only quarterback in the league with a completion percentage north of 70.
The Giants will struggle to slow down the league’s second-best ground game, one that averages 166 yards per game. Expect a high scoring game here, I think the Redskins can win outright.
Green Bay (-7) over ST. LOUIS
Stella got her groove back, and it seems as though Aaron Rodgers has followed suit. Rodgers passed for 338 yards and six touchdowns against a very good Texans defence.
This could be a let-down game for Green Bay as well, coming off a big win and looking ahead to three home games and a bye week. St. Louis have been keeping it close all season, and seem to be buying in to Jeff Fisher’s game plan.
However, I think Rodgers will have another big week, the reigning MVP was questioned and he responded with a bang, look for him to keep tearing opposing teams apart. Rodgers leads the NFL with 16 touchdowns and seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder.
It has been the year of the upset so far, and I have had success taking the underdogs, but I think Green Bay can take care of business this week.
Pittsburgh (-3) over CINNCINATI
Pittsburgh (2-3) has not impressed so far this season and suffered an embarrassing loss to the lowly Titans last week. The Bengals haven’t faired much better dropping their last two games.
It doesn’t get any easier as the Bengals will play the Broncos and Giants following this weeks game.
Cinncinati has lost its last eight games on prime-time television, and the Steelers have only lost once in their last ten games in Cinncinati.
The Steelers are running on reputation in this one, I expect a strong bounce-back performance following last weeks embarrassment. Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau likes to stick it to his former team, since the Bengals fired LeBeau in 2004, Pittsburgh is 13-4 against Cinncinati and held them to less than 14 points on eight occasions.
Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO
Chicago is coming off a bye-week and has been lighting up the scoreboard this season. However, I think they are giving too many points for this Monday night encounter.
Detroit stopped the bleeding last week with an inspiring win over the Eagles.
The Lions had a lot of hype this season, and fluttered out of the gates, however I think they have re-discovered what gave them success last season – throw the ball the Calvin Johnson.
Matthew Stafford threw for 311 yards and a touchdown last week, I think these two will hook up quite a bit this week.
In three of the Lions’ five games, the defense has allowed less than 80 yards rushing, including 77 vs. St. Louis (9/9), 59 at Tennessee (9/23) and 71 at Philadelphia (10/14).
The team ranks fourth in rushing first downs allowed (just 98) and third in passing first downs allowed (55). Detroit has allowed just one rushing touchdown this season, which is tied for second best in the NFL.
Last week (4-1)
This season (18-10-1)
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