A slim chance is better than none at all for Toronto FC.
Coming into the second to last weekend of MLS play, Toronto FC find themselves two points out of a playoff spot with a pair of matches remaining.
Last week, Toronto suffered a heart-breaking draw with San Jose thanks to a goal in injury time.
“Up until 92, 92 and a half minutes we’re happy with the game as such,” Toronto head coach Chris Cummins said. “So disappointed with the way we conceded.”
Toronto’s home finale on Saturday afternoon against Real Salt Lake is a game they need all three points from.
“This is a must-win game now, isn’t it?” Cummins said. “We’re still in it, but we’re very disappointed from last weekend.”
The mathematical odds uncovered on sportsclubstats.com have TFC at a 21.1 per cent shot of making the post-season.
Should they win on Saturday, the chance improves to 48.1 per cent, while a draw would drop their odds down to a meager 7.9.
A loss by Toronto would eliminate them completely.
“We have to rely on other [teams], of course we do, but we’re still fully in it,” Cummins said. “If someone drops any points and we pick up the points we can, then we’re going to make the playoffs.”
TFC’s final match of the season, one that could have serious implications, is at the last-place New York Red Bulls on Oct. 24.
Given that Red Bulls have only won four games all season, Toronto has a legitimate shot at three points.
But it will all be for naught if TFC can’t win on Saturday against a squad with as much to play for as they do.
“They need to get something out of the game as well, so it’s going to be open and we’re going to take the game to them and be as aggressive as possible,” Cummins said.
TFC currently has 36 points, one behind Salt Lake, the ninth-place team. Toronto is in a three-way tie for 10th with D.C. United and FC Dallas.
Currently, only four teams have clinched playoff positions. The top two seeds from each division are guaranteed spots, while the last four go to the next best records.
The closest and most likely team for Toronto to catch and surpass are the New England Revolution. They have 38 points, two more than TFC, also with a pair of matches remaining.
New England doesn’t have the easiest schedule either. Their final two matches are at home against the Chicago Fire and in Columbus versus the Crew.
Those opponents are currently the top couple of seeds in the east.
While the Colorado Rapids, Seattle Sounders and Chicago are all technically reachable for TFC, it would require maximum points for Toronto and none for one of those teams in order to be caught.